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starbucks dividend payout ratio

They’ve increased their dividend for 10 consecutive years. And this has positioned them well in today’s environment.At the right valuation, it could be a phenomenal long-term investment.The DDM analysis is a tailored version of the discounted cash flow model analysis, as it simply substitutes dividends and dividend growth for cash flow and growth.The growth is spectacular, which supports my thesis regarding the quality of this business.That quality carries over to the dividend, too.I factored in a 10% discount rate and a long-term dividend growth rate of 8%.This DGR is at the top end of what I allow for when I use a DDM analysis.It typically commands a large premium for its quality, but that big premium has all but disappeared.However, Starbucks doesn’t need to grow at 14% in order to provide big dividend raises and an appealing rate of return.1 star would mean a stock is substantially overvalued; 5 stars would mean a stock is substantially undervalued. And China is a massive growth market for the company. Starbucks has generated $2.83 earnings per share over the last year and currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.2. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, August 6th.

This is something every other competitor trails on.CFRA is another professional analysis firm, and I like to compare my valuation opinion to theirs to see if I’m out of line.The DDM analysis gives me a fair value of $88.56.CFRA rates SBUX as a 3-star “HOLD”, with a 12-month target price of $90.00.To add color to the margin story, net margin was hovering around 10% a decade ago. The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, August 21st. Of the 1 analysts making yearly forecasts, none raised and 1 lowered their forecast.In the past three months, Starbucks insiders have sold more of their company’s stock than they have bought. The remainder was made up of Other sales.And their brand power is off the charts, conferring unique pricing power that allows them to charge a premium for their in-demand products.Looking forward, CFRA believes Starbucks will compound its EPS at an annual rate of 14% over the next three years.The COVID-19 pandemic is a bump in the road, but the 30% haircut on the stock seems overdone when 30% of the store base isn’t being wiped out.The company splits its revenue across two primary geographical segments: Americas, ~69% of FY 2019 revenue; and International, ~23%. I think it’s fair to say that we should pull our expectations way back.I think this stock is cheap, and my DDM analysis backs that view up.The negative common equity belies this, meaning there’s no long-term debt/equity ratio to rely on.Combining the proven past with a future forecast in this manner should allow us to extrapolate out growth and sensibly estimate a growth trajectory for the business, which will later help us value the stock.What’s really impressive about the dividend growth, though, is the rate at which they’re increasing the dividend.Their durable competitive advantages should give you further comfort in this regard.In July 2019, the company opened its first Starbucks Now store in Beijing.

It’s an express store format that integrates mobile ordering and delivery seamlessly.The sales multiple is at 2.8, which is much lower than the stock’s five-year average P/S ratio of 4.0.Perhaps the biggest risk is the nature of the company itself. That bodes well for the long term.The COVID-19 pandemic is obviously a headwind, but that’s more temporary in nature.This forecast appears to have been provided in January. This indicates that Starbucks will be able to sustain or increase its dividend. That’s before the COVID-19 pandemic became global. In depth view into Starbucks Cash Dividend Payout Ratio including historical data from 1992, charts, stats and industry comps.

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starbucks dividend payout ratio